As Mr. Squid has tried to point out it doesn’t seem like people have a firm grasp on how vaccines are meant to work. This seems evident base one your required data elements:

– probability of infection by H1N1
* – probability of serious illness caused by H1N1
* – probability of death caused by H1N1
* – probability of serious reaction to H1N1 vaccine (serious enough to warrant hospitalization/care)

Not matter how sick you get if you carry then you chance spreading it to others. So really these 4 elements are one, it shouldn’t be relevant how sick one might get if you’re infected then it should be a problem not only for you but those around you.

The more people get vaccinated the less people there are the spread the disease, the safer it is for people for which the vaccine is contraindicated.

Anti-vaccination woo regarding the MMR shot is killing children in the UK, US and Canada right now because irresponsible parents are listening to lies from Oprah and Jenny McCarthy rather than truth medical professionals.

That has very little to do with why you should or should not get any vaccine. At best, if the rate of death from the virus in the population is significantly higher than the death rate from the vaccine, it’s probably a very good idea to get the vaccine. Influenza vaccines have a MUCH lower injury and death rate than influenza disease.

Vaccines work on populations, not individuals. Each person who sees only the selfish view undermines the program and puts the whole population at risk.

>> – probability of death due to H1N1 vaccine

If you google around, I believe you will find it is less than 1 in 1 million.

>> – effectiveness of vaccine – expected reduction in H1N1 cases per unit population

Theoretically, 100% of people vaccinated should be safe from the disease. With the “herd” vaccinated at a rate of over about 90%, cases should drop to near zero. That’s the way vaccines work…

… except when they’re undermined by people who say “well, I probably won’t get the disease, so I won’t bother”. That lowers the “herd” number, thereby increasing infections per unit population. Worse still, by doing that it endangers people for whom the vaccination is contraindicated (allergic to vaccine components, for example).

>> I was told I shouldn’t, owing to a particular drug sensitivity – hmm, “told” is the wrong word, the form was ripped from my hands by a wide-eyed health worker.

It is also contraindicated for me. Thus, to some degree, your health (and mine) depend on people understanding how vaccinations work and getting them when they’re supposed to, rather than mining trivia, or following the advice of washed-up porn stars like Jenny McCarthy, to rationalize an excuse not to get it.

That you have not had the flu is more a turn of good fortune than it is any magical immunity.

>> Not a comforting approach when attempting to evaluate actual risk levels.

It’s easy to evaluate the risk levels. You just have to want to, and you have to pick the relevant numbers. The H1N1 vaccine is not guess work, although the regular annual flu vaccines are, and sometimes it turns out wrong… not often, but it has been documented.

However, from the globe and mail: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/h1n1-swine-flu/h1n1-cases-across-canada/article1352013/ …

There have been, in Canada, just under 210 H1N1 hospitalizations per million population, of which 1/6 went to ICU, and 1/24 died (8.4 per million). Obviously, there have been less serious cases as well, but for your calculation, you want the serious stuff, I assume. So this doesn’t take into consideration lost days of work etc. by people who don’t quite get sick enough to go to the hospital.

From this site: http://www.healthzone.ca/health/newsfeatures/swineflu/article/727270–few-adverse-reactions-to-h1n1-vaccine

The serious adverse reaction rate seems to be 5.4 per million – a little over half the death rate.

The highest death rate from H1N1 by age group seems to be men between the ages of 40 and 49 ( http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V14N33/Pandemic_Fig3.jpg )

There are at least seven data elements required, and I’ve only ever seen 3 (marked with asterisks):

– probability of infection by H1N1

* – probability of serious illness caused by H1N1

* – probability of death caused by H1N1

* – probability of serious reaction to H1N1 vaccine (serious enough to warrant hospitalization/care)

– probability of death due to H1N1 vaccine

– effectiveness of vaccine – expected reduction in H1N1 cases per unit population

– all of the above broken down by age, overall health level, etc.

The ones that I’ve marked with an asterisk weren’t actually found in any single useful place, I was able to piece them together from news articles, health care web sites, etc.

Re the first statistic: I have never had the flu, I have never had a flu vaccine (in fact, the only time I ever tried to get one, I was told I shouldn’t, owing to a particular drug sensitivity – hmm, “told” is the wrong word, the form was ripped from my hands by a wide-eyed health worker. Comforting.

Generally speaking, the seasonal flu vaccine is a gamble: Take a best guess as to which particular virii will be virulent, take a best guess as to which protein coats to emphasize in a vaccine, hope to get them out in time.

Not a comforting approach when attempting to evaluate actual risk levels.

H1N1 may be a different, in that researchers have a better idea of the specific virii and protein coats. But where are the effectiveness numbers?

Point of fact, there are none, because flu vaccines are essentially guess work.

Boil it down for: My % risk of getting the flu (healthy mid-40s male in good physical condition), % risk of adverse reaction, % likely effectiveness, % likely impact of the flu itself.

Until I have those numbers, all the blog posts in the world are just words.

ps I invite you to research what health care organizations in other countries, e.g., one of the major nursing unions in France, are saying about the vaccine and the flu and how they are recommending that their members not get vaccinated.

Re your tweet: I am responsible parent. I do not experiment with my children.